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Most of the big Super Tuesday primaries have a clear winner at this point — but a handful of close races are still in limbo as of Wednesday morning.
That includes a pair of key swing seats in the race for the House, a major proxy battle between different wings of the Republican Party, the fight over who will replace former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the House and a number of other important races.
Here’s a look at the key races around the country where the NBC News Decision Desk hasn’t yet projected a winner. This collection of notable House primaries is concentrated in California, where wide adoption of mail voting and a long post-election processing period often lead to slow counting of votes.
The battleground seat
California 22nd District primary
Republican Rep. David Valadao’s re-election race in the Central Valley could be one of the most competitive battles in the entire House in 2024 — unless Republicans are able to shut out Democrats from making the general ballot. That’s the intrigue in this seat, where there’s no projection with half the vote in.
California’s nonpartisan primary puts every candidate on the same ballot, with the top two moving on to a general election regardless of party. In this district, Valadao is leading the pack with 34% support, followed by former Democratic Assemblyman Rudy Salas at 28%, former Fresno City Councilman Chris Mathys, a Republican, at 22% and Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado at 15%.
Democrats knocked off Valadao in 2018, only to see him come back in 2020 and win again in 2022. But if he and Mathys are the ones who advance, Democrats won’t even get the chance to flip the seat this cycle.
The safe blue and red seats
North Carolina 8th District GOP primary
Republican Mark Harris is running for Congress again, six years after the election following a previous congressional campaign was tossed out, with one of Harris’ consultants accused of widespread ballot fraud. At the time, Harris ultimately agreed with the decision to order a new election, but he’s now running by painting himself as the victim.
In North Carolina, a first-place candidate can win a primary outright as long as they eclipse 30% of the vote — but if no candidate hits that threshold, the top two finishers move on to a runoff. Harris is currently dancing right on that line, at 30.4% support, with 97% of the expected vote in.
Outside groups funded by establishment-aligned Republican megadonors have spent about $2 million against Harris, who has been backed by the political arm of the right-wing House Freedom Caucus. The winner of the GOP primary will be heavily favored to join Congress next year, given the Republican lean of the district.
California 20th District primary
A crowded group of predominantly Republican candidates are looking to replace former Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the House, after he resigned late last year following his ouster from the speakership.
NBC News’ Decision Desk projects that Republican state Assemblyman Vince Fong — who is backed by McCarthy and former President Donald Trump, among others — will move on to the general election. But there’s no projection on his opponent yet with about half the vote. Republican Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux and Democratic teacher Marisa Wood are far and away the next highest vote-getters, meaning two very different types of general election contests are possible.
Texas 32nd District Democratic primary
The race to replace Democratic Rep. Colin Allred in the House, as he leaves his blue district to run for Senate, is also one that hinges on a state runoff rule. In Texas, the top two primary candidates compete in a runoff unless the first-place finisher exceeds 50% support. And state Rep. Julie Johnson sits at 50.4% of the Democratic primary vote, with 99% in.
Johnson, who is backed by a handful of key progressive groups and state lawmakers, will move onto the general election and be the prohibitive favorite to win a House seat if she stays above 50%. But if not, she’ll likely slip into a runoff against Brian Williams, a trauma surgeon who has been a vocal proponent of new gun laws and has been backed by prominent gun-safety groups.
California 12th District primary
Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee is leaving her Bay Area seat open after making an unsuccessful Senate bid. While NBC News projects that Democrat Lateefah Simon, who sits on the Bay Area Rapid Transit board, will move on to that general election, it’s unclear who her opponent will be.
Jennifer Tran, a professor at Cal State East Bay, and Alameda Council member Tony Daysog are in second and third respectively as of Wednesday morning, with just 21% of the vote in. Both of them are Democrats, meaning the deep-blue seat could see a Democrat-versus-Democrat general election.
California 31st District primary
This is another deep-blue district being vacated by a Democratic incumbent (this time, Rep. Grace Napolitano) — and it sparked another crowded race to replace her.
With 66% of the vote in, former Democratic Rep. Gil Cisneros has a narrow lead over the field. But he’s followed closely by two Republicans, Daniel Martinez and Pedro Antonio Casas, who both sit within 2% of Cisneros as of Wednesday morning.
If one of those Republicans advance, Cisneros would become an even heavier favorite in this blue-tinted Southern California district.
